Strategy version: AMW Core 1.0 · Test period: July 2021 to June 2026 · Data through: June 30, 2026 · Methodology last updated: July 23, 2026
What is a backtest?
A backtest applies a strategy's rules to historical market prices to calculate what those rules would have produced over the period studied. It is a historical test of how the strategy's rules would have behaved, not a record of actual trading. Backtests are prepared with hindsight and do not capture every real-world cost or condition.
The data
All performance figures were produced from five years of CME E-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures market data, July 2021 through June 2026. This window includes the 2021 rally, the 2022 bear market, and the recoveries and rangebound stretches that followed, so the strategy was measured across rising, falling, and sideways conditions.
How the backtest was produced
The strategy's exact rules were replayed against that history, trade by trade. Every entry, stop, target, and exit was calculated using the historical prices contained in the test dataset, with no discretionary overrides. A commission of $4 per order is included in the results.
The current-tier model
Every performance figure on the main page comes from one calculation, the backtest at current tier settings.
Each trade in the five-year research record carries its own stop distance, derived directly from the research model's position sizing. The model replays every trade in chronological order at each risk level and applies, in order:
- Position sizing at the tier's risk. Before each trade, the intended risk is the selected level's fixed percentage of current account equity (0.25% / 0.5% / 1.0% by level). The position is sized so that if the trade hits its stop, the loss equals that intended risk.
- Order costs. A commission of $4 per order is included inside every trade result.
- Per-trade compounding. Each trade's profit or loss changes the account balance before the next trade is sized.
- AMW performance fee. At the end of every calendar month with a positive net trading result, a 30% performance fee is deducted from that month's profit, calculated on closed trades. There is no high-water mark: every profitable month is charged, and the next month compounds from the post-fee balance.
This single model produces every figure on the main page: the equity curve, the monthly grid, the drawdown chart, the annual bars, the benchmark comparison, and every headline statistic.
Exact treatment
| Historical market | CME E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) |
| Test period | July 2021 to June 2026 |
| Entry/exit prices | The strategy's backtested fill prices on historical data |
| Commission | $4 per order, included in trade results (an order = each entry or exit execution; a completed trade is at least two orders) |
| Slippage | Not modeled |
| CFD spread | Not modeled |
| Overnight financing | Not modeled |
| Position sizing | Fixed percentage of current account per trade (0.25% / 0.5% / 1.0% by level) |
| AMW fee | 30% of positive net monthly result, deducted at month-end, no high-water mark |
| Compounding | Per trade, chronological |
| Deposits/withdrawals | None assumed |
| Open positions at month-end | Trades count in the month they close |
| Taxes | Excluded |
What counts as a trade
The backtest contains 4,883 completed round trips (entry to exit) across the strategy's signals over the five years. 4,883 completed round trips means at least 9,878 individual orders: each round trip is at least an entry order and an exit order, and trades with partial exits produce more. The $4 cost applies per individual order and is already inside each trade's result.
Relationship to the research output
The unconstrained research output before fees is materially larger than the published figures. The figures offered publicly are the capped, fee-inclusive results shown on the main page.
The benchmark comparison
The benchmark chart on the main page compares the backtest at current tier settings at the selected risk level, after stated AMW fees, with the S&P 500 over the same period. The S&P 500 line is a total return series built from published annual total returns (dividends reinvested), Slickcharts. The strategy uses leverage and has a different risk profile from holding an index fund; the comparison does not make the two equivalent.
The live instrument
The current strategy trades a broker-issued index product that follows the price of the S&P 500 index. The exact product name and symbol vary by broker; on the platform it may appear under a label such as US500 or SPX500. These are leveraged contracts, not ownership of stocks or an index fund: the account gains or loses based on movements in the index price without holding the underlying shares. Broker pricing, spreads, financing charges, margin requirements, and execution quality affect results and vary by broker.
What ongoing monitoring covers
Alongside the strategy's automated controls, a person supervises each trading session. Monitoring covers:
- Connection status between the strategy, the alert bridge, and the broker.
- Platform errors or outages on the charting, bridge, or broker side.
- Rejected or unfilled orders.
- Unexpected or mismatched positions in the account.
- Daily loss control status (whether the circuit breaker has paused new entries for the day).
- The ability to pause the system if conditions require it.
If a technical problem occurs, the response process is to identify the issue, pause new activity when needed, reconcile the account's open positions against what the strategy intended, and resume only once the system is confirmed to be operating normally. Monitoring reduces operational risk; it does not remove market risk or guarantee that every issue is caught or corrected before it affects the account.
What is a contract for difference?
A contract for difference (CFD) is an agreement with a broker to exchange the difference between a product's price when a position is opened and its price when the position is closed. It allows the account to gain or lose based on movements in an index price without owning the underlying stocks. CFDs are leveraged: a smaller amount of account money controls a larger position, which magnifies both gains and losses. A CFD is a contract with the broker rather than an exchange-traded product, so the broker's pricing, terms, and creditworthiness apply. CFD prices and trading conditions may differ from the underlying cash index and related futures markets.
Limitations
Backtested results are hypothetical. They are prepared with hindsight, involve no financial risk, and do not model slippage or liquidity: fills are assumed at historical prices, which live markets do not guarantee. No client earned the displayed results, and no real money was traded in the test. Live execution takes place on a broker-issued index CFD following the S&P 500; the product name and symbol vary by broker, and CFD spreads, financing costs, and trading conditions differ from the futures data used in testing. Stop orders and daily loss controls are intended to reduce risk, but they do not guarantee a maximum loss. Live accounts also meet margin requirements and liquidity constraints that the model does not capture, which is most relevant to the Level Three illustration. Live results may differ materially from backtested results and may be less favorable.
Plain-language glossary
- Broker
- The regulated firm where the trading account is opened, funded, and held. Deposits and withdrawals happen at the broker.
- Strategy
- The fixed set of rules that decides when to enter, manage, and exit trades.
- Automated
- The software places and manages trades without manual order entry. It does not mean the account needs no oversight.
- Backtest
- A calculation of what the strategy's rules would have produced on historical market prices. Not live trading.
- Leverage
- Controlling a position larger than the money committed to it. Magnifies both gains and losses.
- Drawdown
- The decline from a previous account high. An account that grows to $100,000 and then falls to $80,000 is in a 20% drawdown.
- Stop-loss
- An order intended to close a trade after it moves against the position by a set amount. Not guaranteed to fill at its exact level.
- Performance fee
- A fee calculated as a percentage of trading profits, as defined in the client agreement.